Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 17 August 2026, with resolution based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient trader participation at present.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures at the airport station typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional readings reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces humid conditions that can suppress extreme highs relative to inland regions, though urban heat island effects around the airport area occasionally push daily maxima higher than surrounding areas. August 2023 saw peak temperatures of 35–36°C across multiple days; August 2024 remained within the 33–35°C range. These patterns suggest the most probable outcome clusters in the 33–36°C band rather than extreme heat or anomalously cool conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track early-August 2026 weather patterns and any significant atmospheric systems developing across central China in the weeks prior. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if established by mid-2026, could influence regional temperature anomalies. The settlement window closes at midday on 17 August, meaning real-time observations from the airport station will determine the final reading. Given the zero crowd probability, any non-zero odds on moderate temperature ranges (33–36°C) likely represent value relative to historical frequency, whilst extreme outcomes above 38°C or below 30°C remain genuinely unlikely based on Chengdu's climatic record.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.