Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 4 June 2026. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to this outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all brackets. Guangzhou's June climate is characterised by early monsoon influence and rising humidity ahead of the summer peak, with historical June maxima typically ranging between 32°C and 35°C at the airport station.

Historical records from Wunderground show Guangzhou rarely deviates sharply from seasonal norms in early June, though individual days can spike 2–3°C above the monthly average during high-pressure systems. The 0% reading across the board implies the market may be poorly calibrated or that traders have concentrated positions in a narrow range. Comparable years suggest temperatures between 33°C and 34°C are modal for this date, making outlier ranges (both cooler and warmer) potentially underpriced relative to their actual frequency.

The settlement window closes at midday on 4 June 2026, giving forecasters a full calendar day of observations. Traders should monitor late-May and early-June weather patterns—specifically the position of the subtropical ridge and any tropical systems developing in the South China Sea, which could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or elevate them via heat-dome conditions. The absence of meaningful probability mass suggests an opportunity to identify which temperature bracket the market has genuinely overlooked rather than mispriced.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.