Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached on 6 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised.

June sits within Hong Kong's early summer period, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 34°C. Historical records show considerable year-to-year variation; the Observatory's climate data reveals June extremes have reached into the mid-30s during heat waves, whilst cooler systems can suppress peaks to the upper 20s. The 0% implied probability across all temperature bands suggests the crowd is either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder market. Comparable June days in recent years provide the most reliable anchors—2023 and 2024 June records show typical peaks clustering around 31–33°C, with occasional outliers driven by subtropical high-pressure systems or monsoon troughs.

Traders should monitor the Asian-Pacific weather pattern in early June 2026, particularly the position of the Pacific subtropical high and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, both of which materially shift daily maxima. The Hong Kong Observatory issues extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; these become actionable around late May. Recent precedent suggests that heat waves affecting southern China in June correlate with Observatory readings at the upper end of historical ranges, whilst monsoon onset typically moderates temperatures downward. Settlement depends entirely on official Observatory publication, which historically occurs within days of month-end.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.