Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 4 June 2026 at zero probability across all temperature bands, despite early June being Seoul's transition into summer with reliably warm conditions. Historical data shows that Seoul regularly records daytime highs between 24–28°C in early June, with occasional spikes to 30°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market setup or extreme underconfidence in the event occurring at all—a misalignment worth examining given that temperature recording at a major airport station is a certainty, not a contingency.

Early June in Seoul sits at the cusp of the rainy season (jangma), which typically begins mid-June but can arrive earlier. Humidity levels rise sharply during this period, and cloud cover increases, which can suppress daytime temperatures. However, the first few days of June often experience clear, warm conditions before the monsoon system establishes itself. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and historical climate data that traders can cross-reference against comparable years; 2023 and 2024 June records would provide useful benchmarks for typical temperature ranges and variability.

The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data for Incheon station, which is publicly accessible and updated daily. No announcements or schedule changes affect temperature outcomes. The key variable is whether early June 2026 experiences a typical warm spell or an anomalously cool, cloudy period driven by early monsoon activity. Given the certainty of a recorded high temperature and the historical prevalence of warm early-June conditions in Seoul, the 0% pricing appears to reflect market dysfunction rather than genuine weather forecasting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.