Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 4 June 2026. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all ranges. Shanghai's June climate sits firmly in the early summer transition, with daytime highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C, though occasional heat waves can push readings above 35°C.

Historical June data from Shanghai Pudong shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 4 June ranged from 23°C in cooler years to 34°C during warmer spells, with a median around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects consensus clustering around a narrow band—most likely the 28–32°C range—leaving potential value in either tail scenario. Early June falls before Shanghai's peak summer heat but after spring monsoon patterns have typically retreated, reducing the likelihood of extreme outliers in either direction.

Traders monitoring this outcome should track late May and early June weather pattern forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, which typically issue 10-day outlooks by late May. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence East Asian summer onset timing; current neutral conditions suggest a relatively typical June progression. Atmospheric pressure systems moving across the Yangtze River valley in early June will determine whether high-altitude heat or maritime cooling dominates on the settlement date. Any unusual tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during May could alter June's thermal profile significantly.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.