Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow on 17 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as an unlikely outcome within whatever temperature band the market specifies, though the specific threshold remains undefined in the available context.

Lucknow's August climate is characterised by monsoon conditions and high humidity rather than extreme heat. Historical August maxima at the airport typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks toward 37–38°C during particularly dry spells. The 2015 heatwave saw August temperatures exceed 40°C across parts of northern India, though Lucknow itself remained below that threshold. The current consensus probability of 0% suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside a narrower band—possibly above 38°C or below 32°C depending on market framing—rather than rejecting the event entirely.

Monsoon progression and timing will be the primary variable. The Indian Meteorological Department typically issues extended forecasts in early August that can shift expectations materially. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence monsoon intensity; current oceanic indices should be monitored through July 2026. Any significant departure from typical monsoon patterns—whether a premature withdrawal or intensified rainfall—would alter surface temperatures substantially. Traders should track IMD advisories and regional weather station data from mid-July onwards, as these will provide the clearest signal of whether atmospheric conditions favour anomalously high or low temperatures on the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.