Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s afternoon high is the key number here, and the market is already pricing a **25°C** outcome at **100%**, which leaves the rest of the board effectively shut out. In handicapper terms, that makes 25°C the heavy favourite and every other band a deep underdog; the crowd is not just leaning, it is almost fully locked in. The implied probability is therefore extreme, so the main question for any trader is not whether Paris gets warm, but whether the official station reading lands exactly where the market expects or slips into a neighbouring bracket.

That consensus sits comfortably within the usual July backdrop for Paris, where average highs are around **26°C** and daily maxima often cluster in the mid-20s rather than the 30s.[3][5] A local forecast published for 23 July points to partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in Île-de-France between **15°C and 28°C**, which supports a modest top-end but not a heatwave-style spike.[4] The contrarian angle is that a single cloudy spell, a sea-breeze effect, or a slightly cooler airport reading can push the day’s peak below 25°C, but the base rate still favours a mid-20s print over a sharp move either way.[3][5]

For catalysts, the only hard settlement driver is the Wunderground history page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, because the market resolves on the **highest recorded temperature for the day** at that station.[6] That makes intraday sunshine, cloud cover, and the timing of any afternoon warmth more relevant than headline city forecasts, since the official observation can differ from central Paris.[6] With the window ending at **12:00 UTC**, traders will mostly be watching the day’s already-available temperature trace rather than expecting a late surprise; the value spot, if any, is in whether the airport reaches the full 25°C band or stalls just short of it.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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