# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices the probability that MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate views within a specific bracket during its opening 24 hours. The crowd currently implies a 58% likelihood of the YES outcome, suggesting moderate confidence in the upper-range threshold being breached.

MrBeast's historical upload performance provides the baseline for calibration. His recent videos have consistently crossed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several exceeding 100 million in the same window. The creator's algorithmic advantage—stemming from YouTube's promotion of high-engagement content and his established subscriber base of over 200 million—means day-one view counts operate at an outlier scale compared to typical creators. However, performance variance exists: videos featuring collaborations or novel formats (such as his 2024 "MrBeast Gaming" channel launches) occasionally underperformed relative to his flagship channel's baseline, whilst charity-focused uploads and record-attempt videos have consistently overperformed. This historical spread suggests the current 58% probability may undervalue consistency, though it reasonably hedges against the possibility of a lower-profile upload or algorithmic headwinds.

Traders should monitor the timing and format of the next upload. MrBeast typically releases videos on weekdays during US peak hours, maximising initial velocity. Any announcement regarding a collaboration, sponsorship tie-in, or special event would likely shift expectations upward. Conversely, extended gaps between uploads sometimes correlate with production delays or strategic pivots that could alter expected performance. The settlement window closes mid-June 2026, creating a defined timeframe; if no video materialises by 30 June, the market resolves to the lowest bracket, introducing tail risk for holders betting on higher outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.