In this guide
Key takeaway: The CFTC has become the de facto US regulator for prediction markets since 2022. Platforms must register as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) or face enforcement. Kalshi is the only fully compliant platform; Polymarket settled and geo-blocks US users.
Should you be trading prediction markets from within the United States — or contemplating entry into this space — grasping the CFTC's role in prediction markets is essential. This regulatory body dictates which contracts remain lawful to trade, which venues permit such trading, and the operational requirements that govern participation.
What is the CFTC?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission serves as the primary federal regulator overseeing commodity futures, options, and swaps. Because prediction market contracts behave much like binary options contracts, they trigger CFTC oversight whenever they are marketed to American participants.
Key CFTC Enforcement Actions
Polymarket (January 2022)
Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC for $1.4 million upon discovery that it operated without proper registration as an event contract exchange. The settlement's principal components were:
- $1.4M financial penalty imposed by the regulator
- Commitment to discontinue markets that failed to meet regulatory standards
- Implementation of geographic restrictions preventing US-based traders from accessing the platform directly
Following this settlement, Polymarket has redirected efforts toward international expansion whilst investigating potential compliance pathways for US operations.
Kalshi vs. CFTC (2023-2024)
Kalshi, operating as a registered DCM, initiated legal proceedings against the CFTC when the regulator declined approval for its election-related contracts. This pivotal court decision determined that the CFTC lacked authority to categorically prohibit event contracts merely because they reference political contests — a significant victory for market participants. The DC Circuit's decision expanded the permissible scope of event contract products.
Nadex and Other Platforms
Nadex (North American Derivatives Exchange) has provided CFTC-supervised binary options trading for an extended period, encompassing certain event-linked contracts. Their operational framework illustrates that compliant prediction market services remain achievable within the current American regulatory structure.
What Makes a Prediction Market Legal in the US?
For a platform to lawfully provide prediction market contracts to US-based participants, the following prerequisites must be satisfied:
- Obtain DCM registration through the CFTC
- Satisfy Core Principles — encompassing 23 distinct obligations relating to market monitoring, financial soundness, and trader safeguards
- Secure contract authorisation — each distinct event contract category requires CFTC submission and non-objection
- Deploy KYC/AML mechanisms — customer identification and financial crime prevention systems
The "Gaming" Exception
The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) restricts event contracts tied to "gaming" — language the CFTC construes expansively. Consequently, sports-based prediction markets remain contentious. Historically, the CFTC has maintained that sports event contracts qualify as gaming, though Kalshi's judicial success has complicated this interpretation.
What Happens if You Trade on Unregistered Platforms?
Individual market participants encounter limited direct liability — the CFTC pursues platforms rather than retail traders. Nevertheless, participation on unregistered venues entails:
- Absence of CFTC protections governing your account balances
- Lack of mandatory segregation safeguards for deposited funds
- Absence of CFTC remedies should the platform become insolvent or engage in misconduct
For comprehensive insight into international regulatory frameworks, consult our 2026 global regulation guide. Interested in trading on a properly regulated venue with robust investor protections? Explore PolyGram's platform features. Start trading on PolyGram →