When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

GPT-5.6 is the **favourite** to arrive within the settlement window, but the market still prices a meaningful amount of timing risk: the implied probability is **0% YES** in your feed, which is a clear outlier versus the broader chatter around a late-June launch. OpenAI has already shipped GPT-5.5, with public release notes showing an ongoing cadence of updates into late May, so the base case is that any GPT-5.6 move would be a short-interval follow-on rather than a long-dated flagship reset.[10]

The comparable case to watch is GPT-5.5 itself: it went from announcement to API availability within about a day, which is the kind of compressed rollout pattern that keeps traders from assuming a long lead time once a name appears in public materials.[2][10] By contrast, market commentary around GPT-5.6 has leaned on unverified leaks and backend-routing references, which can front-run a release but also overstate readiness; that makes this a classic underdog-leaning value spot for anyone thinking the June window is more noise than signal.[1][3][4]

Catalysts are likely to be official newsroom posts, model cards, or a ChatGPT/API availability update, because the market resolves on general availability rather than internal testing or a codename sighting.[2] The strongest near-term tell would be an OpenAI announcement in the first half of the week, or a release-notes update that mirrors the GPT-5.5 pattern; absent that, the contrarian angle is that the market may be pricing in too much confidence from speculative coverage and backend hints alone.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.