What price will Bitcoin hit on May 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on a single calendar day depends on intraday volatility, news flow, and the specific price level in question. The 1% implied probability suggests the crowd expects a narrow trading range or that the settlement price sits well outside current spot levels. Without knowing the exact strike price, the consensus appears to price in either stability around recent levels or a move too extreme to warrant serious backing.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily ranges have compressed during low-volatility regimes and expanded sharply during macro shocks or regulatory announcements. In 2023–2024, single-day moves of 5–10% occurred regularly around Federal Reserve decisions and spot ETF developments, whilst calmer periods saw ranges under 3%. The current 1% probability reflects either a strike far from consensus expectations or genuine confidence in mean reversion by May 2026.

Traders monitoring this settlement should track macroeconomic calendars—particularly US inflation data and central bank communications in the weeks preceding May 27—alongside any cryptocurrency-specific catalysts such as regulatory filings, exchange-traded product flows, or major custody announcements. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields has remained material through 2024 and 2025. The settlement window's closure on 28 May at 04:00 UTC means the final print captures the London and Asian close, potentially capturing different liquidity conditions than US market hours.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.