Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The lower-bracket meeting between Execration and Mentality Monster in the Southeast Asia closed qualifier is trading with the crowd putting **10%** on Execration. That makes Execration the clear *underdog* in market terms, with consensus leaning heavily the other way; by contrast, Strafe users have Execration at **81.3%** to win, and DLTV shows the teams close on recent win-rate measures, with Execration at **48%** and Mentality Monster at **52%**. [2][3]

For handicap-style reading, the key historical frame is that lower-bracket Dota series can swing sharply on draft quality, momentum and stamina, especially in a best-of-three where one clean early draft can distort the whole match. Execration do have some recent pedigree in the region, including winning the Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision in February 2025, but their recent form has been mixed, with Strafe noting 2 wins from their last 5 matches, while Mentality Monster have also taken 3 of their last 5. [2][5]

The main catalysts for traders are simple: confirmation that the series is actually being played, whether the bracket schedule shifts again, and any official update on a delay or walkover before the settlement window closes. A live listing shows the match in progress, which reduces cancellation risk materially, and the current in-play state may matter more than pre-match pricing if the game is completed before resolution. [1][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.