Bitcoin price on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid **$63,000s**, so the 0% implied YES probability leaves the market pricing a near-certainty that the Binance noon ET close will land outside the target bracket on the settlement strike. Recent comparable pricing has clustered around the mid-$60,000 area: Polymarket’s June 22 event has the 64,000-66,000 range as the clear favourite at about 97%, while Robinhood’s range market has also concentrated around the $64,000 area, which makes this contract look like a crowded **favourite** against a very small, contrarian **underdog** elsewhere in the distribution.[1][2]

For context, Bitcoin’s daily reference price was about **$63,231.87** on June 22 in YCharts’ historical series, after **$64,240.23** the day before, which matches the broader picture of a market oscillating just below the mid-$60,000 zone rather than making a clean break higher.[3] Binance-based futures pricing also showed June 2026 contracts around **$64,100**, reinforcing the view that consensus sits close to the current spot band rather than in a sharply different regime.[8] That makes the value question less about direction than about whether the noon ET candle can drift enough to miss the expected cluster.

The main catalysts are the usual intraday drivers: US macro headlines, equity risk sentiment, and any sharp move in spot crypto liquidity before the 12:00 ET candle prints. A recent market note highlighted Bitcoin slipping to roughly **$63,286** even as the S&P 500 rallied, which is a reminder that crypto can decouple quickly on order-flow pressure rather than broad risk appetite alone.[7] With the settlement using a single Binance minute candle, the trader focus is on short-window volatility, not end-of-day direction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.