Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

The film has to clear **$357.1 million** in domestic opening weekend business to beat *Avengers: Endgame*, so the market is effectively pricing a very high bar against an already huge launch. At **63% YES**, the crowd has Spider-Man as the favourite, and the consensus range from trackers sits well above the threshold: Variety put opening estimates at **$260 million to $280 million**, CNBC said around **$270 million**, while Sony’s own projection was a more cautious **$195 million**.[1][4][9]

Historically, only a handful of films have even approached that territory, and *Endgame* remains the clear benchmark for the record. The angle for handicappers is that the “favourite” case is not about whether *Brand New Day* opens big, but whether it can do *record-shattering* business on the scale of the Marvel event picture that had four-quadrant demand and franchise finale momentum; by contrast, *No Way Home* topped **$260.1 million**, which is strong but still far short of the line, showing how wide the gap remains.[1][10] On that basis, **YES** looks like the favourite, but **NO** can still carry value if one believes the market is over-reading early hype into a once-in-a-decade-style opening.

Traders should watch final weekend reporting rather than pre-release chatter, because the market resolves on the final The Numbers domestic 3-day figure, not studio estimates. The key catalyst is whether reported preview strength converts into Saturday and Sunday walk-up demand; CNBC noted the film had already set a domestic preview record at **$72 million**, and recent tracking has ranged from conservative to exceptionally bullish, which is where the main spread risk sits.[4][3][1] If actual weekend drops are steeper than expected after the preview surge, the underdog case strengthens quickly; if not, the market’s current **63% YES** may still prove too low.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.