GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6 for general release, and the market is effectively pricing a *no-show* by year-end at **0% YES**, making the current setup a strong favourite for **No**. The key reason is timing: the contract needs a public, general-access launch by 31 December 2025, yet the most concrete recent signals in the search set point to no official GPT-6 date and, in several tracker-style write-ups, a later 2026–2027 window rather than an imminent 2025 release.[8][11][15]

For handicapper context, compare this with prior OpenAI roll-outs: the company has often shifted expectations by shipping incremental upgrades under a different label, which can leave late-year “GPT-6” rumours overconfident if the product arrives as a numbered sibling or intermediary version instead. One July 2026 tracker says the model widely expected to become GPT-6 shipped on 23 April 2026 as GPT-5.5 instead, which is a useful reminder that naming and release timing can diverge sharply; that kind of downgrade in the label is exactly the sort of outcome that hurts YES holders in a naming-specific market.[1][12][14]

The trading catalysts are straightforward: an explicit OpenAI announcement using the GPT-6 name, a public ChatGPT or API launch, or evidence that a private preview has widened into open access. Absent that, the consensus remains that the next major model cycle is later than the contract allows, so the value case is with **No**, while any contrarian YES thesis depends on a surprise public launch window and not just internal testing or a closed beta.[9][10][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track GPT-6 released by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.