Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 42% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner | 41% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner | 37% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz | 36% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 51% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor Fritz. This market refers to the tennis match between Brandon Nakashima and Taylor Fritz in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 6:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Bran…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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