Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 37.5 | 79% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 43.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 23.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Arkansas O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Arkansas O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 49.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 41% |
| Arkansas O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 55.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 79% probability to arkansas vs. vanderbilt. In the upcoming college football game between Arkansas and Vanderbilt, scheduled for October 17 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arkansas" if Arkansas win the game. This market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $150K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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