Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| James Madison O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| James Madison O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| James Madison O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| James Madison vs. San Diego State | 99% |
| Spread -5.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| Spread -4.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -1.5 | 98% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| James Madison O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Spread -6.5 | 83% |
| Spread -11.5 | 81% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Lucky Sutton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| George Pettaway: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Herman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Javion Kinnard: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JC Evans: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Denegal: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nathan Acevedo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Donovan Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Napier: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justius Lowe: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordin Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trashon Dye: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Corey Scott: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Noah Grevious: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Za'Ron Collins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cole Keller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Camden Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bert Emanuel Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Braeden Wisloski: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Scott: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ke'Untae Mosley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Miles Halbert: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -15.5 | 49% |
| Spread -18.5 | 49% |
| Spread -19.5 | 49% |
| Spread -22.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 21% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 11% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| O/U 46.5 | 3% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| Spread -9.5 | 2% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| O/U 48.5 | 2% |
| O/U 50.5 | 2% |
| O/U 56.5 | 2% |
| O/U 62.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, james madison vs. san diego state stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between James Madison and San Diego State, scheduled for September 19 at 10:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madi…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.2M.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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