Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs lower bracket will see 3DMAX face Alliance in a best-of-three match on 28 May at 06:00 ET. The crowd has priced 3DMAX at 55% implied probability, positioning them as slight favourites despite both teams entering from the lower bracket. This is a knockout fixture where the loser exits the tournament entirely, heightening the stakes considerably.

3DMAX have established themselves as a more consistent performer in recent Stake Ranked iterations, typically fielding a roster with stronger individual firepower and map pool depth. Alliance, whilst capable of upset performances, have shown inconsistency in their recent showings. Historical precedent in lower bracket openers suggests that teams with superior firepower tend to convert these matches at rates above 60%, particularly in best-of-three formats where map selection compounds advantages. The current 55% for 3DMAX appears to undervalue their structural edge, though not dramatically so.

The settlement window closes at 16:00 on 28 May, allowing only a ten-hour window for the match to conclude. Fixture delays or technical issues could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause, a material risk given the early morning ET scheduling. Recent Stake Ranked broadcasts have maintained punctuality, but server stability during peak European hours remains a variable. Traders should monitor official Stake Esports channels for any pre-match roster confirmations or schedule amendments in the 24 hours prior to fixture time, as last-minute changes have occasionally shifted competitive balance in lower bracket encounters.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.