Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ireland will host Qatar in a FIFA International Friendly on 28 May 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is pricing this as a binary outcome market where "YES" represents a specific condition—most likely an Ireland victory or a draw—rather than the match occurring at all. With settlement closing just after the scheduled kick-off time, traders are effectively betting on a precise result within a narrow window.

Ireland's recent record against Gulf sides and Asian qualifiers provides limited direct precedent, though their performances in friendlies against higher-ranked opponents have been inconsistent. Qatar's trajectory since hosting the 2022 World Cup has seen mixed results; they've struggled in competitive fixtures but occasionally perform well in non-binding matches. The 0% probability implies either extreme confidence in a Qatar win or, more likely, that the market structure itself—perhaps requiring a specific scoreline or outcome type—has created a consensus view that makes YES settlement highly unlikely given standard match outcomes.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the weeks before 28 May, particularly injury updates for Ireland's key players and any late squad changes from Qatar. Fixture congestion in late May could affect squad rotation decisions, especially for players involved in European club competitions. The settlement window's tight closure—ending at 18:45 UTC on match day—leaves minimal room for delayed official confirmation, making early clarity on final lineups and any last-minute postponements critical to position management.

Methodology

We track Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.