Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puntarenas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano (-1.5) | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CS Herediano (-2.5) | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CS Herediano O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Herediano O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CS Herediano 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CS Herediano 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CS Herediano 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CS Herediano meet Puntarenas FC in Liga Promerica, and the market’s **0% implied probability** on the “more markets” basket is an outlier against the shape of the matchup. Herediano are the clear favourite on most readings, with bookmakers listed around 1.67 for the home win, while historical head-to-head data also leans their way: Herediano have won 12 of the 20 meetings in one dataset, and 14 of 24 in another[1][2][6]. That sort of record usually supports a favourite-led, lower-variance handicapper’s read, so consensus would sit closer to a Herediano result than to a Puntarenas upset.
The value question is less about the straight result than which supplementary angles are already priced in. Third-party models split on game script, with one projecting a 2-0 home win and under 2.5 goals, while another flags over 2.5, which is a reminder that “more markets” can be sensitive to total-goals and both-teams-to-score assumptions rather than just the winner[4][5]. For traders, the main catalysts are line-up news, late rotations, and whether either side treats this as a full-strength league fixture or manages minutes around schedule load; Herediano’s long-run superiority is clear, but if the market is being used to price ancillary outcomes, the contrarian angle is usually in a tighter, lower-scoring home win rather than a Puntarenas breakout[1][2][6].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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