Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen | 51% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 1 Winner | 51% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Denis Klok vs Laurence Teunissen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, itf kursumlijska banja: denis klok vs laurence teunissen stands at 51% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Denis Klok and Laurence Teunissen in the ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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