Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 42% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 28% |
| O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Degerfors IF (-1.5) | 8% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| Degerfors IF (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Degerfors IF travel to face Djurgårdens IF in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 25 July, with the market currently pricing an 8% probability for additional markets to be offered on this fixture. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on that date, roughly four hours before kick-off, which constrains the window for new market creation and approval.
Historically, Allsvenskan fixtures—particularly those involving established sides like Djurgårdens—have attracted supplementary betting markets once initial fixtures settle or as match day approaches. The 8% implied probability reflects scepticism that organisers will expand the market suite for this specific pairing. Comparable mid-table Allsvenskan matchdays have seen additional markets materialise in 30–50% of cases, suggesting the current consensus may be underpricing the likelihood of expansion, especially if either club's injury status or form trajectory shifts the narrative closer to kick-off.
Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan scheduling updates and any late team news affecting either side. Degerfors' recent fixture congestion and Djurgårdens' European competition schedule could influence whether bookmakers and prediction platforms deem supplementary markets commercially viable. Swedish media outlets including Fotbollskanalen typically flag significant squad changes 48–72 hours before matches. The tight settlement window means any catalyst—suspension appeals, managerial comments, or unexpected absences—would need to surface by mid-week to justify new market creation. Current odds suggest the market is anchored to baseline expectations rather than accounting for the typical late-week information flow that often prompts market expansion.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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