Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: clervie ngounoue vs varvara lepchenko. This market refers to the tennis match between Clervie Ngounoue and Varvara Lepchenko in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page reviews Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Clervie Ngounoue vs Varvara Lepchenko across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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