Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Who Will Win) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj (-1.5) | 96% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj (-2.5) | 81% |
| O/U 4.5 | 62% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| FC Voluntari (-1.5) | 50% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC CFR 1907 Cluj 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Voluntari 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Voluntari 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score | 16% |
| FC Voluntari (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| FC Voluntari 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Voluntari 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CFR Cluj and FC Voluntari meet in Romania's top division on 27 July, with the market currently pricing additional betting options at 96% probability of availability. The settlement window closes at 15:30 UTC, roughly four hours after kick-off, allowing sufficient time for match resolution and market confirmation.
The 96% consensus reflects standard liquidity patterns for SuperLiga fixtures involving established clubs. CFR Cluj, a perennial title contender with European qualification history, typically commands stronger backing in ancillary markets than lower-ranked opponents. Voluntari, whilst a stable league presence, occupies a mid-table tier where secondary markets often see reduced trading activity. Historical precedent suggests that when a favourite-versus-mid-table pairing generates this level of implied certainty, the value often lies in questioning whether the secondary market depth justifies such confidence, particularly if injury news or late squad announcements emerge before the 11:30 ET start.
Traders should monitor team news releases through 26 July for any squad changes affecting either side's attacking or defensive shape. CFR's European commitments in preceding weeks may influence rotation decisions, whilst Voluntari's fixture congestion warrants checking. The Romanian SuperLiga typically maintains consistent scheduling, but weather conditions in late July—particularly thunderstorms common to the region—can occasionally impact match timing or postponement risk. Any official communication from the Romanian Football Federation regarding fixture status should be treated as a hard catalyst, as settlement depends on the match proceeding as scheduled.
Methodology
We track FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Voluntari - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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