Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to this outcome occurring, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity across the market's full range of options.

July represents the height of Beijing's summer monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. Historical records from the past two decades show that late-July temperatures at the airport station typically fall between 28–35°C, with occasional spikes above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across the board suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or anchoring to recent years' patterns before committing capital. Given that Beijing experienced a notably hot July 2023 with multiple days above 35°C, and considering the broader warming trend in North China Plain summers, the consensus positioning appears cautious rather than reflecting genuine certainty about temperature ranges.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for extreme heat events. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength—influenced by Pacific and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures—will be the primary driver of whether late July brings typical seasonal heat or an anomalous cool spell. Any significant weather pattern shifts reported by international meteorological services in the weeks preceding 25 July could shift market expectations materially from their current flat positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.