Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s airport temperature on 1 August is being priced as a **heavy favourite for 38–40°C**, with the crowd at **0% YES** on the current setup and the leading line clustered around **39°C**. That makes the market a classic overheat trade: consensus is already anchored to an exceptional summer reading, so the main question is whether the day merely lands in the expected band or prints a fresh upside surprise.

Historical context argues against treating 39°C as routine. Busan’s August climate is normally hot and humid rather than extreme, with average highs around **30–31°C** and typical daily ranges far below today’s upper end, yet coastal South Korea has repeatedly produced outlier spikes in recent summers, including Busan’s **38.8°C** record cited in reporting on southeastern South Korea’s heat. The value angle, if any, sits on the **underdog tail**: anything at **40°C** or above needs a sharper-than-expected local surge, while a lower-than-forecast peak can still win if sea breezes, cloud cover, or earlier afternoon timing cap the airport reading.

For traders, the key catalysts are the actual daytime heat dynamics at Gimhae, not headlines. The market settles on the highest recorded temperature for the day, so the decisive factors are peak sun angle, coastal mixing, and whether late-day warming arrives before the final observation window closes. The most relevant live reference is the Wunderground history page for Gimhae Intl Airport Station, and revisions remain possible until the first datapoint for the following date is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.