Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature market is trading as if a very hot reading is almost impossible: the crowd-implied probability of **YES** is 0%, which makes the **underdog** the obvious side on raw pricing. That sits awkwardly beside the local climate profile, because August is Chengdu’s hottest month and 1 August is typically the warmest day of the year on average, with daytime highs around 31–32°C and August records that can push materially higher in heatwave years.[1][2][5][16]

For a handicapper, the useful comparison is not the average high but the tail risk: Chengdu has a warm, humid August regime, with sources putting the month’s average maximum around 29.8–31°C and historical records at about 39–41.6°C, depending on the dataset used.[2][4][7][16] That means the consensus market stance looks anchored to a cooler-than-normal outcome, while the value case for contrarians is simply that one mid-summer spike at Chengdu Shuangliu can clear the usual daily range. The favourite remains a lower temperature band, but at 0% YES the market is pricing almost no upside for a normal hot-day outcome.[1][10]

The main catalyst is the day’s actual airport observation on Wunderground, since resolution depends on the highest temperature recorded there for 1 August 2026, not on city-wide averages or forecast headlines.[Market description] Traders should watch for any late-morning or early-afternoon heat build-up, cloud cover and rainfall timing, because Chengdu’s August climatology is wet enough that showers can suppress the peak even in a hot month.[2][3][10] No specific event schedule drives this market; the dependency is purely meteorological and the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so the key question is whether the airport gets a brief heat spike before then or remains capped by rain and humidity.[Market description][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.