Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The hottest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 3 August will hinge on whether the city reaches the low-30s Celsius seen in most August climate guides, or whether it undercuts that band with cloud and rain. The market’s **0% YES** price implies the crowd is effectively treating the event as outside the chosen temperature range, while the public consensus across long-run August normals sits around **30–34°C** for daytime highs, with some guides a touch lower and some forecast sites pointing higher.[1][4][13][16]

That leaves the favourite/underdog framing inverted versus the market: if the available range is the mainstream one used by the market, the **favourite** is that the day lands inside a warm-summer bucket, not an extreme-heat outlier, because Chengdu in August is typically hot, humid and often rain-affected rather than reliably scorching.[1][13][16] The main **value spot** for a contrarian is that airport observations can differ from city-wide averages, and one forecast source for 3 August shows sun with about **33°C** and some rain, while another daily estimate is even hotter in the **mid-30s**; that keeps the upside live if afternoon clearing or downslope warming materialises.[3][5][14]

For traders, the key catalysts are the live airport observation trend, afternoon convection, and whether rainfall arrives early enough to cap the day’s maximum. Chengdu’s August rainfall is frequent enough to matter, and current short-range weather pages already split between sunny, partly sunny and showery signals for 3 August, so the consensus may shift quickly as the daily high evolves.[3][5][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.