Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 14 August 2026, with settlement contingent on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd expects no outcome matching the specified range, though this reflects uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately contain the day's high rather than a forecast of impossible conditions.

Chongqing's August climate presents a consistent baseline. Historical data shows mid-August highs typically range between 32–36°C at the airport station, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The city experienced temperatures of 35–37°C on comparable dates in recent years, including August 2023 when highs reached 36°C. The current zero probability likely reflects either an extremely narrow or unusually high temperature range specified in the market's resolution brackets, making consensus assessment difficult without visibility of the exact thresholds traders are evaluating.

Weather patterns across East Asia in summer 2026 will depend on the strength and positioning of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts by late June, which could shift trader positioning if predictions indicate an unusually hot or cool August. Any significant heatwave warnings issued in July 2026 would likely trigger reassessment of temperature expectations. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table introduces a data-source dependency that traders should verify against alternative meteorological records, particularly given occasional discrepancies between observation networks.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.