Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Guangzhou Baiyun airport reading for 1 August is a **late-summer heat** market, and the crowd’s **0% YES** implies the board is treating the top end of the day’s temperature band as essentially unattainable. That makes the favourite the *low-to-mid 30s Celsius* outcome, with any strike above the usual August high needing a notably hot, dry afternoon rather than the more common humid, cloud-thinned pattern seen in Guangzhou. August climate guides put average highs around **32–33°C**, with typical daily maxima near **33°C** and historical early-August highs already around **33.5°C to 36°C** in some years.[1][5][18][20]

On comparable cases, Guangzhou’s August profile is not a cold-climate profile where a single hot day is a surprise; it is a city where the baseline already sits close to the upper 20s and low 30s, and the month frequently produces highs above **33°C**.[4][9][16][20] That frames the current price as a strong favourite against an especially hot print, but not a clean all-clear for low temperatures: the value side is usually in *moderate warmth rather than extreme heat*, because the historical average high is well below the more aggressive daily peaks seen in the past.[1][5][18] In handicapper terms, the consensus is firmly against a blow-off top, while contrarian value sits on the possibility that Guangzhou simply delivers another ordinary steamy afternoon rather than a rare surge.

The main catalysts are the local forecast and the day’s convective rain risk, which can cap the afternoon high if cloud and showers build early; Guangzhou’s August weather is typically hot, humid and rainy, with frequent precipitation and only limited sunshine.[11][12][16][20] Traders should watch whether the forecast trend shifts towards more sun and weaker rainfall, because that is the clearest route to an over-performance versus the mean. With settlement tied to the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station high on 1 August, the key dependency is not a schedule or announcement, but the evolution of the day’s heat and cloud cover in southern China’s monsoon regime.[11][18][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.