Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will record its highest daily temperature on 25 July 2026 at Baiyun International Airport Station, with the market currently implying zero probability across all temperature bands. This represents an extreme consensus position given that July is Guangzhou's peak summer month, when daily highs routinely exceed 33°C and frequently reach 35–37°C.

Historical data from Baiyun Station shows July averages around 33–34°C for daily highs, with temperatures above 38°C occurring in roughly one-third of years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either treating this as a certainty that requires no wagering, or the market has failed to attract sufficient liquidity to establish realistic odds. July 2026 falls within the typical monsoon season for southern China, when heat and humidity dominate; extreme cold or unusually mild conditions would be statistical outliers rather than baseline expectations.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting Guangdong Province. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through mid-2026 could influence seasonal temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 25 July, meaning Wunderground's historical record for that specific date becomes the binding reference point. Any significant deviation from typical July heat patterns—such as an unusual cold front or tropical system—would be the primary catalyst reshaping current market expectations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.