Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s maximum temperature on 3 August is a classic summer heat market: the crowd-implied **0% YES** makes the underdog case look extreme, but that also means the price is only useful if the underlying expectation is genuinely cooler than typical August heat. At William P. Hobby Airport, late-summer highs are usually in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, with August averages around 88°F, so the natural baseline is still well above the lower bands that many settlement ranges would imply.[5][14] That makes the current consensus look like a hard fade against climatology unless there is a credible cool-down or persistent storm cover.

For comparable cases, Houston’s August profile is usually driven less by day-to-day whim and more by the balance between Gulf moisture, cloud cover and the afternoon sea-breeze cycle. Forecast pages for early August 2026 showed temperatures around 88–99°F depending on source and location, with one Houston forecast calling for a hot Monday and another showing a high near 37°C/99°F for 3 August itself.[3][4][9] For a handicapper, the favourite is still the warm outcome, but the only real value spot is the contrarian band if cloud and rain suppress the airport high. The market’s 0% YES implies the consensus is already anchored away from a hot reading, so the better question is whether that discount is too deep given Houston’s normal August heat.

The main catalysts are the same local weather inputs that matter most in Gulf Coast forecasting: overnight and morning cloud cover, any patchy rain potential, and the timing of the daily heating peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The listed forecast sources on 3 August pointed to possible rain and elevated humidity, which can cap the maximum if showers arrive early enough, while a clear morning would favour a quick move into the upper 80s or higher.[3][4][9] Traders should watch the morning obs and the airport-specific hourly trend rather than city-wide averages, because Hobby Airport can settle a few degrees differently from broader Houston forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.