Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at the official airport weather station. The crowd currently assigns just 4% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting consensus expects a relatively moderate day rather than an extreme heat event.

Historical data from Madrid's airport station shows July typically peaks between 32–36°C, with temperatures exceeding 40°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of July days across the past two decades. The 2022 European heatwave saw Madrid reach 40.5°C on multiple occasions that summer, whilst more recent July readings have clustered in the 33–37°C range. The current 4% implied probability aligns with the tail end of the distribution, pricing in only the hottest outlier scenarios. This suggests the market is anchored to typical mid-summer conditions rather than exceptional heat, leaving potential value if atmospheric patterns shift toward the Mediterranean heat domes that periodically affect the Iberian Peninsula.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July 2026, particularly any Saharan dust advection or high-pressure systems that typically drive Madrid's most extreme temperatures. The UK Met Office and ECMWF seasonal outlooks, published in early July, will signal whether anomalous warmth is expected across southern Europe. Any significant deviation from normal pressure patterns or early heatwave alerts from Spanish meteorological authorities would be material signals. The settlement window closes at noon on 25 July, so final readings depend on morning and early-afternoon conditions rather than overnight lows.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.