Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station for the capital. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a data-loading issue or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak.

Mexico City's July climate is remarkably stable. Historical records from the airport station show July highs cluster between 25°C and 28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C. The city's elevation at 2,250 metres moderates temperatures significantly compared to lower-altitude Mexican regions. Over the past decade, July 24 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 24°C to 27°C, with no outlier events. This consistency means the eventual settlement will almost certainly fall within a narrow band—the consensus should reflect this historical tightness rather than pricing wide temperature ranges as equally likely.

The key variable is the North American monsoon system, which influences Mexico's mid-summer weather patterns. Late July typically sits within the rainy season, when afternoon convection and cloud cover can suppress maximum temperatures. Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late June onwards, particularly any signals of an unusually dry or high-pressure pattern developing over central Mexico. The current 0% reading across all brackets suggests the market awaits initial forecast data; once meteorological models converge on a specific scenario in early July, the probability distribution should sharpen considerably around the 25–28°C range where historical precedent concentrates.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.