Highest temperature in Munich on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the specific temperature range containing that peak reading in degrees Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full spectrum of possibilities.

August temperatures in Munich historically cluster in the 24–28°C range, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. The 2023 European summer saw Munich record 32.2°C on 12 August, whilst the longer-term August average hovers around 24°C. These precedents establish the plausible bounds: whilst temperatures below 20°C or above 35°C remain outliers, they occur frequently enough to warrant non-trivial probability allocation rather than the current zero reading. The absence of crowd conviction here likely reflects market thinness rather than genuine certainty about August 2026 conditions.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from late July onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing heat domes across central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) typically issues extended forecasts by early August that can shift expectations materially. Seasonal drought conditions or unusual jet stream positioning could push temperatures toward the upper ranges, whilst a cooler-than-normal pattern would compress outcomes toward the historical median. The resolution dependency on Weather Underground's specific Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—also means traders should verify Munich Airport Station's reporting consistency ahead of the settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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