Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s highest temperature on 2 August is a straight weather number, and the market is pricing a **0% YES** on the current crowd view, which makes the obvious favourite effectively the cooler part of the distribution rather than an extreme heat finish. The shape of the book matters here: the market is clustered around the low-to-mid 80s, with the leading bands sitting at 82–83°F and 84–85°F in the live Polymarket feed, while the top-end 90°F-plus tail is still only a minority view.[1] That means the consensus is for a warm but not exceptional afternoon, and the value question is whether traders are underestimating the chance of a brief spike into the upper 80s or overpaying for a milder, more typical August outcome.[1][2]

Historically, early August in New York usually sits in the warm summer range rather than on the edge of record heat, so the market’s centre of gravity looks consistent with seasonal norms rather than a heatwave thesis.[2][9] Recent headlines do show that the city can move sharply hotter when a broader heat pattern sets up, with New York hitting 100°F in early July during a regional heat wave, but that is a different regime from an ordinary summer day and does not by itself justify a heavy premium on the far-right tail.[6][7][8] In handicapper terms, the favourite is the middle-of-the-road 80s band, the underdog is the 90°F-or-higher strike, and the contrarian angle is that one well-timed warm surge around peak heating could still push the day’s high above what the crowd has anchored on.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalyst is the late-breaking forecast for New York and, more specifically, the hourly temperature profile at LaGuardia, because the settlement uses the highest reading recorded there on the day.[3][17] The key dependencies are sunshine, cloud cover, wind off the harbour and any thunderstorm timing that could cap the afternoon maximum; in practice, a modest shift in the overnight and morning forecast can move the market if it changes how quickly the airport warms after noon.[3][17] August guidance for New York has pointed to daily highs mostly in the upper 70s to upper 80s, so the market is already sitting in a warm-but-not-extreme lane unless the final hours’ forecast tilts hotter.[2][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.