Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s temperature on 26 July is the real-world driver here, and the market is priced as a heavy underdog for the “yes” side at **0% implied probability**. That implies the crowd is effectively treating the relevant temperature bucket as already decided against the yes outcome, with consensus concentrated on the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit rather than an extreme print. In market terms, the favourite sits in the **84–85°F** band, which is shown as the leading outcome at 41%, with **82–83°F** close behind at 35.5%; that leaves the “value” discussion more about whether the exact high lands one notch above or below that cluster than about any outsized swing.[1]

Historically, this kind of summer NYC temperature market tends to be read through the day’s synoptic setup rather than the calendar alone: small shifts in cloud cover, sea breeze timing and afternoon convection can move the high by a couple of degrees, which matters when the consensus is tightly bunched. A separate weather listing for New York on 26 July 2026 points to a sunny day with a forecast maximum of around 28°C, which converts to the low 80s Fahrenheit and is broadly consistent with the market’s centre of gravity.[2] That supports the favourite/underdog frame: the consensus is not for a blowout heat event, but for a middling summer high where the exact bucket is still the main battleground.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates and whether actual observations at LaGuardia trend a shade hotter or cooler than citywide forecasts, since this market settles on the highest temperature recorded at that station during the window.[3] Wider US heat news is relevant only as background: the broader heat dome across parts of the country has raised attention on hot-weather risk, but the New York outcome still depends on local cloud, wind and marine influence rather than national headlines.[5] Kalshi’s current board also shows the market sitting at 0% for the “80° or below” side, reinforcing that traders are already leaning away from a cool finish and towards a modestly warmer outcome.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.