Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Market context

The day’s **highest reading at LaGuardia** is the event that matters, and the current **0% YES** price implies the market is treating the listed outcome as effectively impossible. That is a strong favourite/underdog split in the opposite direction to the crowd: consensus is that the market is either mispriced or the contract has already been rendered very likely to miss its target range, so the value case sits with anyone who thinks the actual airport high could still print into one of the pay-out bins.

Historically, LaGuardia can reach the low-to-mid 80s °F in June, and the recent NWS daily report for LGA recorded an **83°F maximum** on the preceding day, showing that warm summer highs are perfectly normal when the pattern supports them.[4] Comparable NYC temperature markets on adjacent June dates have also clustered around the **82–85°F** band rather than cooler outcomes, which underlines how fast the balance can shift if the synoptic setup is hot and dry.[1][3] On that basis, a zero-implied price is a strong contrarian signal rather than a neutral read; the market is effectively pricing the underdog as if the favourite were unbackable.

What traders should watch is the final temperature evolution at LaGuardia through the settlement window, especially cloud cover, wind direction off the harbour, and whether any storm outflow or sea-breeze behaviour suppresses the airport high versus the rest of the city. The available June outlook for LaGuardia points to highs in the **70s to mid-80s °F** range, with warm overnight lows, so the key dependency is not the broader seasonal backdrop but whether the day actually sustains peak heating into the afternoon.[6] Weather Underground is the official resolution source here, so the live KLGA station reading, not a generic NYC forecast, is what ultimately sets the outcome.[5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.