Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity. Le Bourget sits in the north-eastern suburbs of Paris and serves as the primary official weather station for the metropolitan area, making it the reliable reference point for settlement.

Late May in Paris typically sees daily highs between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper twenties. Historical data from Wunderground shows that temperatures above 28°C on this date are uncommon but not unprecedented; the region experiences warmer-than-average springs roughly one year in three. The 0% probability reading suggests the market has either coalesced around a narrow temperature band or reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine certainty. Seasonal patterns favour moderate warmth rather than extremes, but spring weather in northern France remains variable enough that any single narrow range carries meaningful uncertainty.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any early heat domes tracking northward from the Mediterranean. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue reliable ten-day outlooks by late May. Anomalies in April and early May temperatures could signal whether 2026 tracks toward a warmer or cooler spring, shifting baseline expectations. The settlement window closes at noon UTC, so morning readings will determine the outcome; any overnight cooling or early-morning cloud cover could shift the final high significantly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.