Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is effectively betting on the **day’s maximum at Incheon International Airport Station**, with the crowd at **0% YES** meaning consensus is firmly on the lowest band, but that also leaves a narrow contrarian angle if the afternoon warms faster than expected. For a late-July Seoul-area reading, the base case is usually a hot and humid summer profile, and one July climatology page puts Seoul’s typical July highs around **30°C** with heavy rainfall common, while a separate forecast for Seoul shows **28°C** and only modest rain risk early in the day.[1][2]

The handicapper’s note here is that the favourite remains the sub-30°C outcome because cloud, rain and marine influence can cap the peak, especially near the airport. That said, local reporting on 23 July said the peninsula was still in a **33°C** heat pattern, with **northern Incheon and Gyeonggi** facing **20–60 mm** of rain but also broader heat warnings across the country, so the value spot is not in chasing an extreme heat print, but in checking whether the morning rain clears quickly enough for a midday rebound.[4] The 0% implied probability suggests the market is pricing almost no chance of a hotter outcome; the contrarian case is simply that one clear, sunny window can lift the airport station enough to challenge that consensus.[2][4]

For traders, the catalysts are straightforward: the timing and intensity of rain bands over the capital area, cloud cover through late morning, and any last-minute forecast shifts from forecasters tracking Seoul and Incheon separately. Met Office data for Seoul currently shows **28°C**, sunny conditions and low rain risk at the time of checking, which sits in some tension with the Korean news coverage of heavier regional rainfall, so the key dependency is whether Incheon stays under the rain shield or gets enough clearing for a stronger afternoon high.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.