Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. Seoul's summer climate presents a narrow band of realistic outcomes. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that late July temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28°C and 33°C, with extreme heat above 35°C occurring in roughly one year per decade. The 0% implied probability suggests the market may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting or reflects low trading volume rather than genuine confidence that temperatures will fall outside expected ranges.

The critical variable is whether an early-season heat dome or tropical system affects the Korean peninsula in late July 2026. The East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any Pacific typhoon activity will determine whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Current seasonal models from meteorological agencies won't be reliable until spring 2026, making near-term probability assessment speculative. Traders should monitor June and early July 2026 weather patterns and any official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration released in the weeks before settlement. The 0% reading likely reflects insufficient market participation rather than analytical consensus, creating potential value if traders believe historical temperature distributions will hold.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.