Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Market context

Incheon International Airport’s highest temperature on 22 June will be set by the warmest reading recorded on the day, with settlement based on the Wunderground history page for the station. With the crowd implying **0% YES**, the market is priced as a strong underdog for the relevant outcome, while the consensus from the live forecast picture is much firmer around the **mid-to-high 20s Celsius** rather than anything extreme.[1]

The historical frame argues against treating this as a long-shot. Seoul’s June daily highs typically sit in the upper 20s Celsius and climb through the month, with WeatherSpark showing average highs around **77°F to 81°F** and only rare days outside roughly **68°F to 87°F**.[2] Polymarket’s own market page says forecast models currently favour **26–28°C**, with the modal outcomes at **27°C** and **26°C**, which leaves the underdog case resting on either an unusually cool marine influence near Incheon or an outright forecast miss.[1]

The main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon evolution of the local forecast, any update from the Korea Meteorological Administration, and whether cloud cover, coastal winds, or rain suppress the daytime peak. The market can still move if short-range models shift, but the practical value spot is usually in the small cluster of temperatures that sit near the current consensus rather than a tail outcome; by contrast, the 0% tag leaves room for contrarian interest if traders think the airport station will print below the model band.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.