Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 29 May 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a reflection of the market's nascent stage rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Seoul's late May climate sits at the threshold of early summer, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the monsoon season. Historical data from the same station shows late May maxima clustering between 24–28°C in most years, though anomalously warm patterns can push readings into the low 30s.

The 0% implied probability across all temperature bands suggests minimal trading activity and no established favourite. This creates a straightforward handicapping problem: Seoul's May 29th temperature will almost certainly fall within the historical range, making mid-to-high 20s ranges the natural consensus zone. Value may exist in slightly elevated temperature bands (29–31°C) if traders are anchoring too heavily to cooler averages whilst overlooking the increasing frequency of above-normal May warmth across East Asia in recent years. Conversely, early-season monsoon moisture arriving ahead of schedule could suppress maxima into the low-to-mid 20s, though such patterns typically establish later in June.

Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern forecasts from late April onwards, particularly upper-air ridge positioning and any early monsoon onset signals from meteorological agencies. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 29 May, allowing only morning Incheon readings to count, which may slightly depress the daily maximum compared to afternoon peaks.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 29? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.