Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

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Market context

Shenzhen's highest temperature on 27 May 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. May in Shenzhen sits within late spring, transitioning toward the subtropical summer season, with typical daily highs ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period.

Historical May data from Shenzhen shows considerable consistency. Over the past decade, maximum temperatures on 27 May have clustered between 29°C and 33°C, with outliers rare but documented. The 2015 reading reached 34°C, whilst 2019 recorded 28°C. This narrow band—roughly 28–34°C—represents the practical range for settlement. The zero-probability reading suggests traders may be awaiting clearer range definitions or waiting for seasonal forecasts to sharpen before committing capital.

The relevant catalyst is the China Meteorological Administration's extended outlook for late May 2026, typically published in early May. Tropical weather systems occasionally affect southern China during this window, though May remains pre-monsoon. Any significant high-pressure system stalling over the region could push temperatures toward the 33–35°C range, whilst cloud cover or moisture from the South China Sea would suppress readings toward 28–30°C. Current atmospheric patterns favour near-normal conditions, but seasonal forecasts remain the primary information dependency for traders seeking an edge.

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.