Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 25 July 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a data or settlement concern rather than a genuine weather forecast. July is Taiwan's hottest month, with Taipei regularly recording daily highs between 32–35°C, occasionally exceeding 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all bins is unusual and likely reflects uncertainty about market mechanics or data availability rather than meteorological expectation.

Historical records from Taipei Songshan Airport show July temperatures cluster heavily in the 33–35°C range, with extremes reaching 37–38°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 2013 heat wave pushed readings to 38.3°C, whilst more typical July peaks sit around 34–35°C. Given Taiwan's subtropical climate and the airport's urban heat island effect, any temperature range between 32–36°C should carry material probability weight. The current flat pricing suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or waiting for clarification on settlement procedures.

Taiwan's Central Weather Administration publishes daily forecasts and historical data independently of Wunderground, though the market specifies Wunderground as the resolution source. Traders should verify that Wunderground's historical records for Taipei Songshan Airport (RCSS station code) remain accessible and updated through the settlement window. Any disruption to that data feed or discrepancies between sources could affect resolution. The absence of meaningful probability distribution indicates limited trading activity, creating potential value for traders confident in typical July temperature ranges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.