Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s airport temperature market is trading as a **0% YES longshot**, which makes the crowd an aggressive **underlay** on any genuine late-summer heat spike. August is normally Tokyo’s hottest month, with average highs around 31°C to 31.5°C in the city and daily highs commonly sitting in the low 30s, while historical August records show the metro area can still reach the upper 30s in extreme years[6][11][2].

For framing, the favourite in practical terms is any outcome landing in a mid-30s Celsius range, because Tokyo’s August climatology supports high-30s risk even if it is not the median case[2][16]. The market’s 0% pricing leaves little room for a contrarian weather-heat play: the value question is not whether 40°C looks likely, but whether a one-day thermal surge, especially under clear skies and weak onshore moderation, can push Haneda above the usual August band enough to beat the consensus completely[2][4][10].

A trader should watch the short-range forecast, especially cloud cover, rainfall, humidity and wind shifts, because those are the main intraday drivers of the daily high at Haneda rather than the monthly average alone[1][5][13]. Heat-advisory style coverage also matters: Japan’s summer pattern has recently featured severe heat episodes, and any renewed high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region would strengthen the contrarian case for a higher settlement print[18][20].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.