Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at the airport station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, which reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across the full range.

August sits within Wellington's winter season, when daily highs typically range between 10–13 °C. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 15 °C on mid-August dates are uncommon but not unprecedented; the airport station has recorded highs of 16–17 °C during occasional warm spells in late winter. The 0% implied probability suggests the market has either collapsed into a single heavily favoured outcome or lacks sufficient trader participation to distribute probability across plausible temperature bands. Given Wellington's maritime climate and consistent winter patterns, extreme outliers—either well below 8 °C or above 18 °C—remain statistically unlikely, yet the complete absence of probability allocation across alternatives warrants scrutiny.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea during late July and early August 2026, as these drive short-term weather patterns affecting the lower North Island. MetService forecasts issued in the week preceding 14 August will provide the most actionable signal for repositioning. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates potential for discrepancies; traders should verify Wellington Airport's reporting protocols to understand whether instrumental drift or station maintenance could affect recorded values.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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