Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport needs only a modest lift to clear the usual August range: the market settles on the day’s **highest temperature** at Wellington Intl Airport, and the long-run August norm is roughly **12–14°C** for daytime highs, with average lows around **4–9°C** depending on the source used[1][2][9][13]. With the crowd at **0% YES**, the market is effectively pricing the top end of the stated range as a near-no-hoper, so the favourite is the lower bands and the underdog is any outcome that needs a materially warmer-than-normal afternoon. The value case sits with contrarians who think Wellington can still spike above its monthly mean if cloud breaks and winds ease for a few hours, but the baseline consensus is that August in Wellington is cool, changeable and not a strong heat setup[1][2][7][13].

Recent August climate data also points to a fairly constrained upside profile. Wellington has been described as the wettest and least sunny of New Zealand’s main centres in August 2025, while broader August records in Wellington include a much higher long-run extreme of 61°F/16.1°C and a lower record of 36°F/2.2°C, underscoring that the tail exists even if it is rarely reached[5][7]. For traders, the main catalyst is the live Wellington weather pattern on 3 August itself: the key dependencies are cloud cover, wind direction, and whether a brief northerly or foehn-style warm-up develops around the airport during daylight hours. The market’s reference point is Wunderground’s Wellington Intl Airport Station history page, so the final print is about the single warmest observation before the window closes, not the daily mean[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.