Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 29 May 2026. The crowd has assigned 0% probability to this outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all brackets.

Guangzhou's late May climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the airport station shows daily highs in the 32–35°C range during this period, with occasional spikes to 36°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across all ranges is unusual given that May 29 invariably produces measurable heat in this subtropical location. This suggests the market may be poorly calibrated or that traders are anchored to a narrow consensus band. Comparable years show little volatility in late May temperatures; the city's monsoon transition typically stabilises conditions rather than producing extremes.

The key variable is whether an early-season heat dome develops across southern China in late May 2026. Current seasonal forecasting models, published by China's National Climate Centre, indicate normal to slightly above-normal temperatures for the region through May, though such long-range predictions carry substantial uncertainty. Any significant weather system moving north from the South China Sea could shift outcomes materially. Traders should monitor late-April and early-May weather patterns for signals of anomalous warmth or cooling, as these often persist into the final week of the month. The settlement window closes at midday on 29 May, giving traders no opportunity to adjust positions based on actual morning conditions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 29? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.